Director’s Message for 2007
Takaya Suto
Director of the Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (CPDNP), Japan Institute of International Affairs
(delivered at the beginning of 2007)“Patience Will Achieve More Than Force”
The year 2006 was another difficult year for efforts toward disarmament and non-proliferation. After the events of 9/11, concerns over the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to terrorists and other non-state actors such as international terrorist organizations, as well as to states, have been posing an increasingly grave threat to world peace and security. Last year, amid deepening disarray, the world witnessed a series of incidents that could shake the foundations of the nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Following the test-launch of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles including the Rodong missile in July, the DPRK announced on October 9th that it had conducted its first underground nuclear explosion test. A new round of six-party talks was held in December, but failed to make inroads towards resolving the North Korean nuclear standoff. Iran seems to be determined to continue its nuclear activities in defiance of the United Nations Security Council Resolution unanimously adopted as a call from the international community to suspend uranium enrichment, and it is suspected that a nuclear weapons program still lingers. This issue has also raised concerns over a loophole in the NPT that could be exploited for the acquisition of nuclear weapons. The US-India agreement on nuclear energy cooperation approved by US Congress in December sent repercussions throughout the international non-proliferation regime infrastructure: the de-facto recognition of a non-NPT state as a nuclear-weapons state could serve to further increase the sense of injustice among non-nuclear states that abide by the obligations of the NPT.
In the field of conventional weapons too, satisfactory progress was not made. The UN Small Arms Review Conference concluding in July without adopting a consensus document is still fresh in the minds of many.
On the other hand, some positive movements were observed. The Sixth Review Conference to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) held from November to December adopted with consensus the final document for the first time in a decade. The Conference decided to take new steps toward comprehensive implementation and universalization of the Convention, including establishment of an Implementation Support Unit consisting of a secretariat. This was not only conducive to strengthening the BWC, but also represents an important step toward the revitalization of multilateral disarmament and a non-proliferation regime. The CPDNP contributed to further the process by organizing the BWC Tokyo Seminar and setting up a discussion forum for the parties involved.
The field of nuclear non-proliferation showed some movement in terms of debate on a framework for preventing the proliferation of uranium enrichment and reprocessing technologies, an issue that has recently drawn widespread international attention. During the 50th IAEA General Conference held in September, a special event was held under the theme of “Assurances of Supply and Non-Proliferation”, where participants discussed possible multilateral approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle. With the objective of promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy while proactively contributing to nuclear non-proliferation efforts, Japan submitted a proposal, thereby participating in the debate in a constructive manner. In the meantime, a debate on the nuclear armament of Japan (fueled by nuclear proliferation as symbolized by the DPRK’s nuclear testing and the worsening security environment surrounding Japan) would not be beneficial in light of the varying interests of the country.
As IAEA Director General Dr. ElBaradei stated during discussions with me in November on the occasion of the table talk hosted by Kyoto University’s COE Program, “there can be no achievement in non-proliferation without genuine disarmament”. To make the non-proliferation regime more secure and universal, now is the time to fight the headwind against disarmament, and redouble our efforts toward its furtherance.
In this light, efforts toward facilitating the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and development of its verification system are deemed one of the most important on the agenda. Commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the CPDNP is steadily working toward the establishment of a CTBT verification regime, and is playing a central role in establishing and operating National Data Centers (NDC-1 and NDC-2) for the analysis of data transmitted from ten monitoring stations to detect nuclear tests. It is true that the entry into force of the CTBT is not yet in sight. However, during his visit to Japan on the 10th anniversary of the Treaty’s opening for signature, Ambassador Tibor Toth (Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) firmly stressed in his lecture at our center in August; “The International Monitoring System (IMS) has been implemented to 70% of the deployment plan, and is playing a substantive role in deterring nuclear testing”. When the DPRK announced the test explosion of a nuclear weapon, the CPDNP and National Data Centers developed prompt and adequate responses, for which the testimonials of the Minister for Foreign Affairs Taro Aso were presented. We are determined to further our efforts in the process toward provisional operation of the IMS.
We sincerely hope that the Geneva Conference on Disarmament Sessions for 2007 will be the starting point for negotiations on the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (the FMCT, or Cut-off Treaty). 2007 is also the inaugural year of the preparatory process toward the 2010 NPT Review Conference. In the Review Process held under the difficult situations surrounding the NPT, earnest discussion is crucial for the promotion of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
In November, I was invited to attend the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs held in Egypt, where I emphasized the importance of disarmament and non-proliferation. 2007 marks the 50th anniversary of the Conference first held in 1957, prompted by the Russell-Einstein Manifesto issued by Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein and signed by eleven Nobel Laureates. At the height of the Cold War, they called for the governments of the world to avert the utter disaster of a nuclear war. This was an era before the NPT regime came into being. Now that the Cold War between East and West has ended, finally freeing the world from the influence of the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union, it is necessary to revisit the founding spirit of the Pugwash Conference and give serious consideration to how humanity can build a more peaceful and secure world.
Edmund Burke, a British statesman and philosopher of the 18th century, said “Patience will achieve more than force”. Now more than ever, this patience is required of those engaged in the disarmament field. With this firm resolve, the CPDNP will continue to make a positive contribution toward disarmament and non-proliferation, which are among the top priority policies of the Japanese government, and help Japan to lead international initiatives in the field.
We appreciate your continued guidance and encouragement to lead these activities to successful conclusions for this year.
